I've been confused about where the stock market could be headed from here, or more precisely, will we enter a bear market with a crash? I do think we will enter a bear market in 2020 (which means we are already in a bear market) but without a crash.

A couple big problems no one is discussing are impending farmer bankruptcies and their impact on Midwest banks, and impending lower oil prices leading to bankruptcies in the U.S. oil industry.

Recessions are caused by policy mistakes and bubbles. We certainly have bubbles in both the bond and stock markets. The policy mistakes were giving a tax cut to wealthy during an economic expansion and starting a trade war with the entire world instead of focusing on China, an area where the rest of the world would have joined us to push for meaningful change now that China has reached a point in economic development where it can enact IP reform. The money rushing into the bond market right now due to zero interest rates everywhere else in the world can just as quickly rush out of the bond market at the first sign of trouble.

I don't think we actually enter recession. More likely, growth slows to 1% then reaccelerates.

Given the industrial slowdown, stay away from oil and steel stocks. Bank stocks could get into trouble due to bankruptcies. The large cap technology leaders will get hit along with overpriced technology stocks and this will be a good opportunity to get into AAPL, FB, GOOG, and AMZN.

Good places to put money now are pot stocks, biotech, 5G technology, healthcare, gold, and bitcoin.